Homelessness is up dramatically. But is that the whole story?
2025 Homelessness State of the Union - Part 1
2025 Homelessness State of the Union - Part One
To end the year 2024, many of you saw the same report I did—that nationwide, homelessness is up 18%. This was an increase on top of what was already the highest rates of homelessness on record. These numbers reflect the point in time count conducted in January 2024, meaning that we are only now reckoning with data nearly a year old—and signs point to more bad news coming later.
This increase is as heartbreaking as it is predictable. Homelessness is solvable—we know that housing paired with supportive services ends homelessness with a success rate around 90%. It is only because our sheer unwillingness to embrace this proven method—instead pursuing tried-and-false methods—that we end up here. Criminalization, ignoring the problem, and moving folks from corner to corner (or shelter to shelter) continues to make homelessness worse, not better.
There are a lot of reasons to despair. Part 2 of this “Homelessness State of the Union” will attempt to reckon with what’s coming in 2025, and how we should anticipate and respond to it. Today, there’s a bit more good news to ruminate on.
Hidden within this 18% increase, there is actually something to celebrate.
Bear with me: this is obviously bad news. Overall, in this country, our systems are failing to prevent and end homelessness.
But—homelessness did not increase everywhere, nor equally. Some states actually saw significant drops in homelessness, and others huge increases. In fact, three states account for nearly two-thirds of the increase in homelessness. This article from HomelessStrategy.com helpfully breaks down the data by state to show the vast differences:
(Note, there appears to be an error for New Mexico on this chart. It should be an increase, but is listed in both the total and percentage columns as decreases.)
This is really, really important to understand for a couple of reasons:
1. The fact that homelessness varies so differently from place to place dispels many of our myths about what causes homelessness
If it were true that the primary causes of homelessness are poor choices, mental illness, or drugs and alcohol, then homelessness would occur equally in every place where those things exist (which is everywhere). But it doesn’t. States and cities that have ample drug use, diagnoses of mental illness, and even poverty somehow manage to keep homelessness rates low, or make progress on decreasing their rates. If you believe that homelessness is caused by moral failings or particular diagnoses, then you have no answer as to why homelessness varies so drastically place to place.
The truth—that homelessness is directly correlated to the cost and accessibility of housing—accounts for these aberrations. You can lay the data of places with low housing costs over the data of those with low homelessness rates and find a perfect match. This is one of the crucial narrative battles around homelessness, especially in faith circles—that homelessness is a systemic issue directly related to the cost and accessibility of housing, and not an issue of individual morality or spirituality.
2. If some states have managed to decrease their homelessness in spite of everything, we can learn from their successes
The biggest decrease in homelessness came from the state of Maine. It’s no surprise then to see that in 2022, the state of Maine, and several of its smaller municipalities, committed to evidence-based practices. Tennessee also saw a decrease, due in no small part to Chattanooga’s efforts that decreased homelessness by 50%, through their “focus on housing, an eviction prevention initiative and efforts to target services to specific at-risk groups.”
Georgia is worth mentioning as well, as they did not see a statistically significant increase at all. Atlanta, the 6th largest metro area in the United States, saw only a 7% increase in homelessness, well below what any other metro of its size saw in the same time period. Atlanta’s mayor Andre Dickens has made homelessness a priority since he took office in late 2021, allocating funds to both emergency and long-term services. He is currently proposing $60m to produce 700 affordable housing units, including 200 supportive units.
Let’s also not miss one of the biggest stories of 2024: that homelessness among veterans has reached a record low: “an 11.7% reduction in Veterans experiencing homelessness since 2020 and a 55.6% reduction since 2010.” This is because, of course, the VA has remained committed to Housing First principles.
The success of the Veteran’s Administration, Maine, Georgia, and Tennessee show us that we have the roadmap to success, if we would all have the courage to embrace it.
Data is only as good as how we read it and tell its story.
I’m finding more and more that thoughtful data interpretation, intentional story-telling, and creative presentation are incredibly effective at turning the tide of narrative change around homelessness. This last year, the National Alliance to End Homelessness revealed that more than half of Americans (56%) believe that lack of affordable housing is a primary driver of homelessness. While many still say the same about drugs and alcohol (57%) and mental illness (52%), the notion that so many are connecting homelessness with housing costs is HUGE. 56% would have been unimaginable even five years ago.
Narrative change is working… and we desperately need more of it. So I’m gonna ask you something.
The work I do writing (books, zines, Substack, and social media) and speaking (workshops, preaching, virtual conversations and Q&A’s, podcasts)—it’s having an impact. Narrative change in the broader community of faith will play a huge role in whether we see these numbers increase or decrease in the next several years. I know I am only a small part of that equation, but I have also been honored to witness the ways my work has helped foster change, build momentum, and inform ministries and practices across the country and even beyond. I have and always will do everything I can to keep my work accessible—my Substack content will never be behind a paywall, and I will always work diligently with anyone wanting to bring me out to speak regardless of their budget.
Nonetheless, the vast majority of writing and speaking I do does not bring in any income, and certainly not at a rate that would allow me to increase it in the ways I want to. So my ask of you, dear friends, is to consider becoming a Paid Subscriber to this Substack. I’ve previously written a post about all the reasons that you shouldn’t become a Paid Subscriber, and all of that still applies.
But for those of you who (1) believe that this narrative change among faith communities is desperately needed, (2) have the means to contribute, and (3) believe that my work matters and makes a difference, I would ask you to consider joining me in trying to grow this thing.
Thank you friends. Keep an eye out in a few days for 2025 Homelessness State of the Union - Part 2, where we will talk about climate disaster, the incoming administration, and other emerging realities that will shape homelessness this year and beyond—and what we can do about it.
Starting my week with a little bit of hope??? Don’t mind if I do 😌